Luigi Moretti
University of Bologna

Moretti

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(Tuesday, 17th May 2016)

Title : Measuring the effects of institutions on economic performance with the Synthetic Control Method

A growing number of interesting contributions estimate the effects of reforms and institutional changes on economic outcomes using the Synthetic Control Method for causal inference in the context of comparative case-studies. In this workshop, we are going to: i) present the methodology; ii) review a selection of recent contributions, with a focus on the economic impact of EU institutions; iii) discuss the differences between the Synthetic Control Method and other methodologies as well as the conditions for potential prospective applications.

Bibliographical references :

Abadie A., A. Diamond, J. Hainmueller (2010). "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program". Journal of American Statistical Association 105, 490, 493–505.

Abadie A., A. Diamond, J. Hainmueller (2015). "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method". American Journal of Political Science, 59(2), 495–510.

Billmeier A., T. Nannicini (2013). "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach". Review of Economics and Statistics, 95, 983-1001.

Campos N., F. Coricelli, L. Moretti (2014). "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using Synthetic Counterfactual Methods". C.E.P.R. Discussion Paper no. 9968, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.

Campos N., F. Coricelli, L. Moretti (2015). "Norwegian Rhapsody? The Political Economy Benefits of Regional Integration". C.E.P.R. Discussion Paper no. 10653, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.

Costalli S., L. Moretti, C. Pischedda (2014). "The Economic Costs of Civil War: Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence and the Effects of Ethnic Fractionalization". HiCN Working Paper no. 184, The Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex.

Pinotti P. (2015). "The Economic Consequences of Organized Crime: Evidence from Southern Italy". Economic Journal, 125, 586, 203–232.